I promise not to stray too often in this blog into that most divisive of subjects, party politics. But there seems to me to be a striking parallel between current political developments in the UK, US and elsewhere and something that happens time and again in the financial markets.
Politically speaking, I’ve been a bit of a chameleon. As a student I joined the SDP and interned at the Democratic National Committee in Washington, DC, despite harbouring a sneaking admiration for the statesmanship of Ronald Reagan and even (OK, I did have to keep quiet about this one) the reforming zeal of Margaret Thatcher. Since then I’ve voted for all of the mainstream UK parties at one time or another.
When I joined the Labour Party shortly after Tony Blair arrived in Downing Street, I thought I had at last found my true political home. Yet those heady days now seem a very long time ago. Labour is once again on the back foot and, after a very disappointing result in the general election, is now in the throes of an acrimonious battle for the leadership. My preferred candidate currently stands in fourth (and last) place, my second choice in third and, barring a minor miracle, left-winger Jeremy Corbyn looks set to be confirmed as the party’s new leader on Saturday.
There’s much to admire about Corbyn and the new brand of anti-establishment, grassroots politics that he and the likes of the SNP in Scotland and Senator Bernie Sanders in the US represent. That it’s promoting political engagement among sections of the population who’ve hitherto felt disengaged is a very positive development.
For me, though, Corbynmania is symptomatic of the age-old problem that, when it comes to politics, people have very short memories. Like investors, they are over-influenced by relatively recent events; they over-learn the lessons of the last five or ten years, and they make the mistake of assuming that the status quo will endure indefinitely. They latch on to something which seems new and exciting but in fact is anything but and, like the latest investment fad, will eventually fizzle out.
Like the financial markets, UK politics tends to revert to the mean. We flirt with unbridled free-market economics for a few years, then veer to a more Keynesian approach and back again. We get all excited about a charismatic new leader but dispense with their services when they get on our nerves. Yes, there are political landslides, like 1945 and 1997, but sooner or later the political pendulum always ends up in its resting position — i.e. in the middle, or at least somewhere near it.
Politics is the art of the possible, and ultimately, whether they themselves gravitate to the left or the right, politicians must appeal to the middle ground if they’re actually going to achieve anything. Winning power means winning a general election, and after all, what is the point of a political party if not to form a government?
Goodness knows New Labour was far from perfect. As a journalist I found its cynical marketing spin particularly unedifying. And, of course, what happened in Iraq was truly disastrous, tragic and quite probably criminal. But to demonise Tony Blair and overlook the real achievements of his premiership, as the more militant Corbynistas seem determined to, is for me, a gross over-reaction — not to mention a re-writing of history.
My fear, shared with many others, is that although a Corbyn victory might seem like a breath of fresh air initially, it will precipitate a return to the tribalism that characterised the yah-boo politics of the 1970s and 80s. Tweedle-Grudge versus Tweddle-Greed. A political slanging-match that leaves those of us who inhabit the middle ground feeling completely disenfranchised.
Britain needs a strong Opposition. A progressive alternative. A party and a leader with the will to save the Union, to tackle inequality and to bring about lasting reforms — not least, from my point of view, to the financial services sector. Sorry, but a Corbyn-led Labour Party isn’t it.
Robin is a journalist and campaigner for positive change in global investing. He runs Regis Media, a niche provider of content marketing for financial advice firms with an evidence-based investment philosophy. He also works as a consultant to other disruptive firms in the investing sector.
